Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/NASA) rainfall forecast for 27 June for South Asia


Rainfall Update: Rainfall declining in coming days (June 24-27, 2013)

Please see the visualization of rainfall intensities in the form of maps in the following pages.  The colored patches are the areas where heavy rainfall occurred in the past and is expected in the coming week. The red colored areas are where minimum rains and the purple ones are the areas where maximum rains occurred. You will see two kinds of maps (a) forecast for June 27, and (b) trend of rainfall.

1. Forecasts

Forecast for June 27, 2013 (72 hrs from June 24, 2013, 0600 UTC)

This is rainfall prediction for June 27, UTC 1200. Not so heavy rains expected in the region. The red colored areas represent average 100mm and yellow colored dots represent 200mm rainfall for  May 27, 2013 at 1200 UTC.







2. Recent rainfall trend

24 hours accumulated rainfall on June 24 by UTC 0600


Minimum 35 mm, central region of Nepal,  India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Cambodia and has almost no variability of rain.
3 days  accumulated rainfall on June 24 by UTC 0600
Minimum 100 mm, max 200mm in Brahmaputra region of Tibet, Bangladesh and Cambodia.



7 days  accumulated rainfall on June 24 by UTC 300

Patches of minimum 200 mm, max 350 mm  over Brahmaputra region, Myanmar and Cambodia. Rains are in declining trend.


3. Conclusion on Rains: 
The one day, three days and 7 days accumulation on June 24, at 0600 UTC trend shows rains are in declining order in the region. The forecast for June 27 shows regular monsoon rainfall trend.

4. Potential Flood and Landslide areas

4.1. Potential floods 

Expected in Bangladesh, Brahmaputra and Cambodia.






4.2 Potential landslides on June 24, 2013


Landslides very likely in the Brahmaputra region in Tibet.












4.3 Potential floods and landslides due to three days accumulation



Landslides just likely in South-east Tibet.






4.4 Potential floods and landslides due to 7 days  accumulation

Likelihood of landslides only in the south-east Tibet area.

5. Conclusion on Floods and Landslides:

Although both flood and landslide potentials still linger over Nepal and mainly in other parts in the region, they are in declining trends due mainly to the declining rainfall patterns for 72 hours.
For more on TRMM, please visit: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/. To understand the process, please refer to this literature: Algorithm 3B42 - TRMM Merged HQ/Infrared Precipitation; http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/3b42.html
Note: These interpretations are based on some of NASA/TRMM experimental products. These experimental products usually imply their predictions may vary by a great margin of error, or may often predict very accurately. So, please exercise caution. These should be considered as educational products and the discussion should be taken in the same line. But these material have loads of scientific information to contemplate on.

June 24, 2013
Kathmandu

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