Thursday, June 20, 2013

Rainfall Update: More flooding expected coming days

Rainfall Update: More flooding expected coming days

Please see the visualization of rainfall intensities in the form of maps in the following pages.  The colored patches are the areas where heavy rainfall occurred in the past and is expected in the coming week. The red colored areas are where minimum rains and the purple ones are the areas where maximum rains occurred. You will see two kinds of maps (a) forecast for June 19, and June 22 and (b) trend of rainfall that caused heavy floods in western Nepal and North India.

Scientists have found that if the rainfall exceeds 144mm in a day, the likelihood of landslides increase unexpectedly in Nepal. The  forecast shows rains will exceed the range of 200mm. So, more landslides to be expected. More loss of lives and property, sad news.

1. Forectasts
Forecast for June 19, 2013
This is rainfall prediction for June 19, UTC 1200. Heavy rains expected in the region of the range min 100 mm to max of 250mm for June 19 at about 1200 UTC.

Forecast for June 22, 2013 at UTC 300
This is rainfall prediction for June 22, UTC 300. Heavy rains expected in the region of the range min 100 mm to max of 250mm more frequently that  for June 19.
2. Recent rainfall trend
24 hours accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 35 mm, central region of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.

3 days  accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 100 mm, max 200mm central and western regions of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.

7 days  accumulated rainfall on June 19 by UTC 300
Minimum 200 mm, max 500 mm central and western regions of Nepal, India, Myanmar and China.

For more on TRMM, please visit: To understand the process, please refer to this literature: Algorithm 3B42 - TRMM Merged HQ/Infrared Precipitation;

Monday, June 17, 2013

Constituency Map of Kathmandu District and valley

The 2008 Constituent Assembly Electoral District Maps of Kathmandu district and Kathmandu valley:

Kathmandu had 10 constituencies. It is likely that the 2013 CA election will have 16 Constituencies in Kthmandu.

Kathmandu valley Constituencies. Kathmandu valley has 4 districts: Kabhre, Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur.

Preliminary Analysis of Constituencies: Which districts gain and which districts loose?

As per constitution of Nepal, after a census is taken the constituency areas will be re-delimitted.

Census of Nepal 2011 taken by Government of Nepal's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has been published.

On comparison of data between Census 2001 and Censu 2011, the following information is gleaned:

1. Total 48 districts had increase in population. The blue color on the map shows these districts.
2. Total 27 districts saw decrease in population. The red colored districts on the map.

2001 Population: 23,151,423
2011 population: 26,494,504.

See the pattern of decreasing population trend:

See the pattern of increasing population trend below:

The pattern of gain and loss in the number of constituencies appears to be as given below:

I will update on the changes and new findings in future blogs.

Thank you

Nepal Constituent Assembly (CA) election date announced for 19 Nov 2013

Government of Nepal announced Constituent Assembly Election date as November 19, 2013 (BS Mungsheer 4, 2070).
See the link here.

KATHMANDU: Putting an end to the long-drawn-out period of uncertainty, the government today decided to hold Constituent Assembly election on November 19.

A Cabinet meeting took a call on the poll date after sorting out all contentious issues related to election laws. The government endorsed the Election to the Constituent Assembly Ordinance and forwarded it to the Office of the President for the seal of approval, said Minister for Information and Communications Madhav Prasad Poudel.

The Election Commission-proposed threshold provision, much-debated by four major forces at their innumerable High Level Political Committee meetings, has been removed, in an apparent bid to appease the fringe parties. The government, however, has upheld EC’s proposal on eligibility criteria for CA candidature. “A person convicted of heinous crime by a court will be disqualified from contesting the election,” Poudel told THT.

He said the government has kept existing provision on inclusiveness intact, exempting any party fielding less than 30 per cent candidates under proportional representation from being inclusive for other than woman category. The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML had been demanding that all the parties, irrespective of their strength, should follow the principle of inclusiveness equally in other categories as well. The government has also cracked the ‘other groups’ conundrum and has put Brahmin, Chhetri, Thakuri, Sanyasi and others who have not been defined in this category.

President Ram Baran Yadav’s press adviser Rajendra Dahal said the Head of State would take a call on the government-forwarded ordinance tomorrow.

Panel to delimit constituencies

KATHMANDU: The government on Thursday formed Constituency Delimitation Commission which will be led by former Supreme Court justice Tahir Ali Ansari. Geographist Netra Dhital, administration expert Madhunidhi Tiwari, Sociologist Dambar Chemjong and Secretary at the Prime Minister’s Office Raju Man Singh Malla are the members. The commission will complete delineation of electoral districts for the 240 first-past-the-post seats within next 30 days.