Thursday, July 26, 2007

More Rains in Nepal coming week - Rainfall Prediction for South Asia and Asia Continent: July 25 - August 1, 2007

Here are two images showing expected rainfall in South Asia and Asia continent, provided by NOAA Climate Prediction Center
The above image for South Asia is subset of larger image covering entire Asia Continent given below.
One should look at the image and the given map legend to understand the rainfall scenario. In the map, Nepal is covered by top three classes/colors in the bar scale of precipitation. Minimum of 75 to 100 mm rains is there in every part of the country, although the area covered by this category is only in 5% of the area. The rest of 90% of the country is covered by a rainfall category which is in the range of 100 to 150mm. Remaining 5% is covered by a rainfall range of more than 150mm.

All this means, we should anticipate more rains than the last week (July 18-25) rains posted earlier. Districts in east and central east terai were mostly inundated in flood waters last week. What should expect this week? Even more. Expect more districts being soaked in flood waters especially in the Terai of Western, Central and eastern Development regions. The districts that are going to be affected are: Rautahat, Bara, Parsa, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilbastu and Jhapa. The districts which were flooded last week - Mahottari, Dhanusha, will get more water as their upstream highmountains are getting more rains (especially Dolkha area) and expect more landslides in Central region hills.



The northern Bangladesh, Assam and Meghalaya have very intense rains coming week indicating increase in the water levels in the Delta plains, and expect more area in Bangladesh under water.

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