Monday, July 30, 2007

After a lot damage last week, rains are receding: NOAA CPC prediction for July 29 - August 5, 2007

Many Terai district settlement and infrastructure is under flood water, and the death toll due to floods and landslides has raised to 72. Thousands of people are familes are displaced, and many children have died due to the spread of water-borne disease. Find below some notes on rainfall for this week:

Monsoon Highlights:

The rainfall synopsis for Nepal for July 29-August 5: The area under very heavy rains (150mm and more) is very less today (5-8% from 90% last week), and the area under just heavy rains (100 mm or so) is just 35%. Situation seems to be slightly improving; actually little rain in the eastern part of the country across the hills and plains. However, heavy rains are predicted in the far-west part of the country, especially in the plains and hills of Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardiya, and Banke. Surkhet valley will have high rains as in the past, no less. Although the above terai districts will have heavy rains, the extent or the area of heavy rain is small, and is localized, so the flooding will continue at smaller intensity than the last few days.

Image 1: SOuth Asia Rainfall Prediction

The Terai districts of western and central Nepal - that are Kapilbastu, Rupandehi, Nawalparasi, Chitwan and Makwanpur will get rains above 150mm, same as last week, but, the upper reach of the streams in the area will have less rains. So, there is less chance of having serious and consistent flooding, although it is not possible to completely rule out possibility of flooding and submergence of settlements and infrastructure under flood water.

Eastern Nepal, especially, Jhapa will get regular high rains at its south-east part, but only few damaging incidents are expected there. The area upstream has less percentage area of high rains there.

Image 2: Asia Continent Rainfall Prediction
Bangladesh, India: The north-east part of india continues receiving heavy rains, although the rain concentrations are shifting more towards Madhya Pradesh and western part of UP and Bihar. The extent of rain area is not that widespread as in the last week. The western ghats of India rains are receding. However, the rain effect in Bangladesh continues to remain unchanged, due to continuation of heavy rains in Assam, Meghalaya and North half of Bangladesh, albeit the southern delta area seems to have relieved a bit. Here, the flow and submergence depends on what happens in the catchments of the Ganges and Brahmaputra anyway.

More updates tomorrow!

Thanks to NOAA CPC, who have presented rainfall prediction images for Asia.

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